Damage Calculator

Methodology

The purpose of the damage calculator is to monitor the activities of the extreme right in Hungary with regards to its effect on the international prestige of Hungary. The damage calculator provides a monthly calculated index, denominated in the Hungarian currency (forint), which gives an estimate of the quantified, indirect damage to Hungary, caused by the internationally published pessimistic articles on the activities of the Hungarian extreme right. By calculating the damage, the PR values of the articles, the decreasing touristic incomes due to the negative reports and the decrease of business investments are being taken into consideration.

The set-up of the media list

The core of the damage calculator is a database aggregated in the course of collecting and analyzing pessimistic articles connected to domestic extreme right politics, published in one of the monitored 53 international online media outlets. By selecting the countries, as well as the pages, internationally accepted measuring and statistical data were taken into account, therefore the database perfectly maps out the image of the right-wing extremism in the international press.

a, Western-European and transatlantic countries were selected that have a significant effect on the Hungarian economy either due to the business connections, or being instrumental in the domestic tourism1. The countries that are not sentient by the extreme-right activities were left out of the monitoring, despite their stressful presence in tourism or in the business field (like Russia or China), because in these countries the investment decisions and the image of Hungary depend less on the affairs related to the right-wing extremists. Thus the monitoring involves Austria, France, Germany, Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom and Switzerland.

b, The point of selecting the media outlets was to highlight the given country’s most popular pages and most important global business media. For this purpose, the data of the online data counter system of Alexa2 and the collection of the most popular business sites by eBizMBA3 were taken into consideration, and a minimal attendance level was determined as well4. Hereby the publications of 53 online pages make up the base of the damage calculator, listed in the scheme below.

AustriaDer Standard, Die Presse, Krone, Kurier, ÖE24
FranceLem Monde, Le Figaro, 20 Minutes, Le Parisien, L’Express, Le Nouvel Observateur, Liberation, Le Point
GermanySpiegel, Bild, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Focus, Die Welt, Stern, Zeit, Handelsblatt, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, RP Online
ItalyLa Reppublica, Corriere della Sera, La Stampa, Il Giornale
United KingdomBBC, Daily Mail, The Guardian, Telegraph, Reuters, The Sun, The Independent, Financial Times, The Economist
USAHuffington Post, New York Times, Fox News, Forbes, Wall Street Journal, Business Insider, Washinton Post, CNN Money, Bloomberg, ABC News, Market Watch, CNBC, Business Week, The Street
Switzerland20 Min, Tages Anzeiger, Neue Züricher Zeitung

c, In pursuance of counting the damage, the reading of the data of the media outlets is taken into consideration, since the more popular site’s article about the Hungarian extreme-right politics probably reaches more people. The value of the reading is between 1 and 2. This value is being calculated in virtue of the Alexa’s monthly average reading statistics in such a way that the raw percentages are formed into normal distribution between 1 and 2.

d, For calculating the effect of the publications on the business/investment decisions besides the damage on the country image, every monitored page was assigned with a business influence value between 0 and 1. The economic pages were assigned with higher, while the mass media with lower values. The values were determined according to the eBizMA account on the most popular business sites, its own definitions of the sites, and the search results of the important economic expressions (GDP, stock market, rate). The portals were sized up to 0; 0.25; 0.5; 0.75 or 1.

The content processing of the articles and the calculation of the damage

While processing the content, the articles, published in the monitored media are studied in virtue of the intonation, the spread (both on a scale of 3). In result of those, and the reading data and spread of the articles (specified above) every article is assigned with an index from 1 to 10, which is a numerical pointer, taken into consideration while calculating the three main components of damage as follows:

1, PR value: The PR value is estimated by multiplying the article’s index by 1,000 USD (appr. 22,0000 HUF). Accordingly, every article’s PR value, caused by the extreme-right activities counts between 1,000 and 10,000 USD, which is added up monthly. At the same time, domestic radical issues generate publicity not just in the monitored media, but even more worldwide. Therefore every PR value of the 53 media outlets is multiplied by 1.5, for estimating the damage of the internationally published articles negatively depicting Hungary because of the extreme-right activities.

2, Touristic damage: estimates the laggard touristic incomes. It is calculated by the monthly average spending of the seven monitored countries (according to the 2012 data of Central Statistical Office (KSH)), supposing that their spending in Hungary lowers by 0.001-0.001% as a result of the articles. While estimating the country of origin is also taken into account (only lowers the spending of the tourist arriving from there), as well as the reading results, the spread and the intonation of the article (namely the decrease of the incomes depends on the index). Since the spending of the tourist coming from the monitored countries amounts to 46% of the total touristic incomes in 2012, the result is multiplied by 2.2 for estimating the total laggard touristic incomes.

3, Investment damage: estimates the laggard foreign direct investment. Calculated by the monthly average FDI coming from the 7 monitored countries (according to the National Bank of Hungary 2012 statistics), supposing that in result of the articles the FDI flow into Hungary lowers by 0.00-0.005%. While estimating the country is also taken into consideration (only the FDI from that country decreases) just as the reading around the business decision makers, the spread and the intonation of the article (namely the decrease of the FDI depends on the index). Since the FDI flow from the monitored countries amount to 51% of the total FDI inflow, the result is multiplied by 1.9 to estimate the total volume of the laggard FDI inflow.

Eventually, the monthly damage value is the sum of the PR value, the touristic damage and the investment damage, calculated as above, denominated in HUF.

  1. These KSH statistics were taken into account: 4.5.3 The amount of tourist coming to Hungary and their spending, by country and 3.1.20. The foreign capital investments by country and group of countries
  2. The monthly estimated reading statistics of alexa.com were downloaded on 26. 03. 2013.
  3. The list of the most popular business websites was downloaded on 26. 03. 2013.
  4. The value of the minimal attendance is 0.0005% according to Alexa statistics. Only the media outlets with a monthly attendance over 0.0005% could get into the monitoring

Source: https://szabadpiacalapitvany.hu/about/method